A Linear Model for Dynamic Generation Expansion Planning Considering Loss of Load Probability

Computation of Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) is a challenge in Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) problem. This paper presents a dynamic GEP model considering LOLP as a reliability criterion. The objective function of the proposed dynamic GEP model includes the discounted total costs of investment cost, operation cost, and maintenance cost. The proposed LOLP constrained GEP problem is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem. The MINLP formulation of GEP problem is then converted to a mixed integer linear programming (MIP) problem by applying several approximations to LOLP constraint. The utilized approximations are divided into two clusters for low and high order outages. A test case containing 12 types of installed and 5 types of candidate plants with a 14-year planning horizon is used to validate the efficiency of the proposed dynamic GEP problem. The developed MIP-based GEP model is solved using CPLEX solver and the obtained results are compared with the conventional LOLP-constrained GEP model.